A Vinachem-republished outlook projects global ammonia capacity rising 3% to 232 Mt by 2022, with closures in China's nitrogen restructuring. Global urea capacity is forecast to grow by a net 10 Mt to 226 Mt, and the urea supply-demand imbalance is expected to narrow after 2020.
Expected tightening of urea supply after 2020 as Chinese capacity closes supports a firmer nitrogen fertilizer outlook, though near-term surplus persists until about 2019.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.