
Brent crude has risen more than 20 percent so far this year, to around $78 a barrel, despite Saudi Arabia's pledges of more output. The article examines why prices remain high despite the extra supply promised by the kingdom.
Persistently firm crude supports diesel and fertilizer input costs for grain and feed production. Price strength despite higher OPEC output signals tight underlying balances.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.