
Analysts quoted by Tank Transport say the diesel market could face a crisis when the IMO 2020 rule cuts marine fuel sulfur from 3.5% to 0.5% in January 2020. Blending on-road diesel to make compliant marine fuel could lift world diesel demand by several million barrels.
OPIS's Tom Kloza suggested prices could reach $4 to $5 a gallon in 2019, and US retail diesel averaged $3.09 in July, the highest monthly level since 2014.
A structural jump in diesel demand would lift transport and fuel costs for feed ingredient logistics, adding upward pressure on delivered feed and ingredient prices.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.