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Chinese traders are paying more for Brazilian soybeans than domestic crushers pay, and US beans are becoming competitive despite China's 25% duty on US soybeans. Freight rates from the US Gulf to China have started rising toward expectations of $50 per tonne in October.
Record Chinese purchases of Brazilian beans reduce demand for US soybeans, pressuring Chicago prices, while higher ocean freight raises landed costs. Any resumed US shipments to China would partly offset that pressure.
freightwaves.comFreightWaves StaffSep 27, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
