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China has begun buying U.S. soybeans again after a period of relying on Brazil, with new-crop sales to China reaching 6.19 million tonnes in an October USDA report, up 545% from 2018. Roughly 3 million tonnes of tax-free import quotas for U.S. beans were reportedly included in the preliminary phase-one deal, while other U.S. imports still face 30% tariffs.
Shifting Chinese demand back toward U.S. beans supports U.S. soybean prices and export basis, while tighter Brazilian availability reduces the competing supply.
foodlogistics.comNov 4, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
