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Industry expects grilling season demand to partly offset pandemic losses in beef and pork. Live and feeder cattle futures fell 20-22% from February 21 to March 16, pushing cash prices 11% lower.
Packer margins rose to record highs.
Lower cattle prices reduce feedlot margins and feed demand, while beef and pork demand depends on whether the seasonal grilling boost offsets recession losses.
wlj.netSteve Kay, WLJ columnistApr 1, 2020After 37 past bearish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 37 past macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
