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Rabobank's North American Agribusiness Review warns that US meat markets face turbulence in Q4 2020 from rising COVID-19 cases, the election, US-China tensions and the lack of stimulus. Beef output is down about 1% from 2019 while pork production is recovering and hog slaughter is near 2019 levels.
Expected volatility and uneven pork supply recovery add uncertainty to hog and cattle prices and to feed demand from US livestock producers.
meatpoultry.comRyan McCarthyOct 27, 2020After 37 past macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 18 past neutral macro events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
