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A USDA grain storage report from September 28 showed farmers holding large soybean stocks, with old-crop stocks on September 1 at 438 million bushels, up 45 percent year on year, as they withhold beans amid the US-China tariff dispute. US soybean prices at New Orleans fell 20 percent from June to September.
Barge soybean movements were slightly above last year's level for the week ending September 22.
Heavy farm and off-farm storage with weak export demand from China pressures soybean and meal prices, while the stock overhang limits near-term barge volumes. Lower soybean values also reduce the cost of soymeal for feed buyers.
waterwaysjournal.netDavid MurrayOct 5, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
