A Federal Reserve regional economist note says Eighth District farmers grew 19% of US soybeans in 2017. It notes that China recently imposed a 25% tariff on soybeans, creating uncertainty for US growers.
The tariff is the central trade risk for the district's soybean crop.
A 25% Chinese tariff on US soybeans makes US beans less competitive in China, pressuring US soybean prices and meal export demand.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.