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At the Inland Marine Expo, IEG Vantage's Ken Eriksen said the barge industry remains cautiously optimistic despite unprecedented high water and disrupted flows linked to the US-China trade dispute. He noted that China's retaliatory tariffs since April 2018 have greatly affected global commodity flows.
The Trump administration has offered a $12 billion farm relief package and is considering another $15 billion to $20 billion.
Combined flood disruption and tariffs reduce US soybean and grain export flows, keeping pressure on soybean prices. Potential additional farm aid may cushion farm income but does not restore export demand.
waterwaysjournal.netDavid MurrayMay 24, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
