New crop oil sunflower prices rose 15 to 35 cents per hundredweight in a week, with some locations up 50 cents over two weeks. Crush plants quoted $17.30 to $18.35 for NuSun.
Traders are concerned that US tariffs on steel and aluminum could provoke Chinese retaliation against US soybeans.
Fear of Chinese retaliation against US soybean exports is the main risk to oilseed prices, and it could spread to other crops if it occurs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.