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Oil headed for its biggest weekly slump since October after a sell-off tied to inflation concerns, a surge in Treasury yields that lifted the dollar, and softer near-term crude demand in Asia. Futures recovered only slightly on Friday after Thursday's 7.1% decline, though prices remained up more than 20% for the year.
Rising yields and a firmer dollar pressure commodity prices broadly, weakening the energy-linked cost outlook for feed. Banks still see the pullback as a buying opportunity, so the downside may be limited.
worldoil.comElizabeth Low, Alex LongleyMar 19, 2021After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Attributes the selloff to inflation worries, higher Treasury yields lifting the dollar, and softer Asian demand; it was published after the move.
