
Oil was on track for its biggest monthly loss since October, with WTI down about 7% in August. Investors weighed a planned OPEC+ increase of 400,000 barrels per day and the gradual restart of Gulf of Mexico output after Hurricane Ida.
Weak Chinese data showed the effect of the delta variant outbreak, and refineries were expected to recover more slowly.
Expected supply restoration and weaker demand from China point to softer energy prices, which lowers diesel and freight costs for feed makers. The OPEC+ decision due Wednesday is the next key price driver.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.