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Russia's blockade of the Kerch Strait during its tensions with Ukraine has cut access to the Sea of Azov. The Azov ports handle about 7 million tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian grain, and Chicago wheat futures rose 1% on the day.
Analysts expect the effect on grain markets to be relatively limited.
The strait is a route for Black Sea grain, so disruption can lift freight rates and add to wheat's risk premium. Analysts see Russia as unlikely to block its own cargoes for long, which caps the price effect.
themoscowtimes.comBloombergNov 26, 2018After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
