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A long line of soybean ships is waiting off South America ahead of a Trump-Xi dinner. China is avoiding American-grown beans due to tit-for-tat tariffs, and those cargoes are being rerouted to Argentina partly because drought cut domestic supplies.
Argentina is the largest soymeal exporter but has not been a major importer of U.S. soybeans until now.
Rerouting U.S. beans to Argentina shifts export flows and widens the basis gap between U.S. and South American soybeans, while a possible trade deal could reverse the flows and lift U.S. prices.
bloomberg.comShruti Singh, Pablo Rosendo Gonzalez, Kevin VarleyNov 28, 2018After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
