
China accounted for over 40% of global urea capacity in 2017, about 89 million tonnes, and domestic output is running below 50% of operating capacity. Plant shutdowns for pollution control and gas diverted to heating have constrained the ammonia and urea industry, while India has several new projects under consideration.
Chinese capacity cuts tighten global nitrogen supply and support urea prices, which feeds into higher fertilizer costs for grain and oilseed growers.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.