Genesis Fertilizers reports pressure across fertilizer prices during the holiday lull. Mosaic cut posted potash prices on Dec.
14, and Russia will impose export duties of 23.5% on mineral fertilizers priced above $450/mt from Jan. 1, 2023.
Russian export duties restrict supply to world markets and could firm prices, while Mosaic's cut signals weaker potash demand.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.