
The International Grains Council met in Paris on December 4 and cut its 2018/19 world total grains production forecast to a three-year low of 2,079 million tonnes, down 24 million from last year. The council expects a second straight season of stock depletion, with record maize and barley trade projected.
A tighter global grain balance and record maize and barley shipments support export prices for corn and barley, with buyers likely to face firmer feed-grain values as stocks draw down.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.