ABARES's September Australian Crop Report forecasts the 2019-20 winter crop at 33.9 million tonnes, up 11% on last year but 16% below the 10-year average and revised down 7% since June. Drought has cut production sharply in Queensland and New South Wales, while Victoria and South Australia are recovering.
A deeper-than-average Australian crop trims export supply and supports feed grain and wheat prices, with more imports likely to be needed in the east.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.