A fertilizer company notice says China's government has removed export tariffs on chemical fertilizers, apatite, iron ore and 94 other items from January 1, 2019. It notes that exports of urea fell 55% year-on-year through November 2018, while diammonium phosphate exports rose 18.7% to 7.1 million tons.
Total fertilizer exports were 22.76 million tons, down 1.5%.
Removing export tariffs makes Chinese urea and DAP more competitive abroad, adding supply that pressures global nitrogen and phosphate prices lower. Cheaper fertilizer supports lower feed grain production costs.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.