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Morgan Stanley strategists expect the Canadian dollar to rise further, arguing markets underestimate how far the Bank of Canada may hike rates this year. Oil has recovered, with WTI up 16% and Brent up 13.4% year to date on OPEC cuts and the Venezuela crisis.
A firmer loonie and oil recovery would raise Canadian dollar-denominated input and energy costs, while the oil rebound reflects OPEC supply restraint that supports energy-linked feed and fuel costs.
poundsterlinglive.comJames SkinnerJan 28, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, WTI moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
