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The Waterways Journal's annual outlook says barge industry leaders see trade uncertainty as a major 2019 risk, alongside a prolonged US federal government shutdown. Negotiations between the US and China are underway, with rumors of large Chinese purchases of US soybeans.
Possible Chinese soybean purchases would support US soybean demand and export flows, while continued tariff uncertainty keeps barge freight and export margins volatile. The outcome of the talks is a key swing factor for soybean and soymeal prices.
waterwaysjournal.netDavid MurrayJan 25, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
