
U.S. soybean stocks on December 1 reached a record 3.736 billion bushels as demand faded amid the US-China trade war. USDA trimmed its 2018 soybean crop to 4.544 billion bushels.
Corn stocks of 11.952 billion bushels came in below expectations, and wheat stocks rose to 1.999 billion bushels.
Record soybean stocks signal weak export demand and bearish pressure on soybean and meal prices until trade relations improve. Lower corn stocks are supportive for feed corn.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.