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NATSO argues that RIN price volatility has been driven by EPA policy announcements, rumors and news reports rather than flaws in RIN markets. It opposes EPA's expected proposed reforms to RIN markets, which it says aim to reduce biofuel demand.
Proposed RIN reforms that could depress biofuel demand would weigh on soybean oil and corn demand for ethanol and biodiesel feedstock, so the price implication is bearish if reforms proceed.
natso.comTiffany Wlazlowski NeumanFeb 21, 2019After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
