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The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina's 2018/19 soybean crop to 52 million tons from 50 million, despite about 700,000 hectares lost to heavy rain in the Pampas. The crop is expected to be 49% larger than the drought-hit prior season.
Argentina is also expected to export 300,000 to 400,000 tons of soybean oil to China after harvest begins in March.
A larger Argentine soybean crop adds to global supply of soybeans, meal and oil, which is bearish for soybean meal and oil prices. The expected soyoil shipments to China add some demand support for soy oil.
datamarnews.comFeb 18, 2019After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 18 past neutral weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +2.6% over 5 sessions (72% higher; middle half -0.4% to +3.5%), and +3.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
