
The USDA's January WASDE lowered its 2023 and 2024 U.S. milk production forecasts due to smaller cow inventories and lower milk per cow. The 2024 Class III forecast was cut 75 cents to $16.10, while the Class IV forecast was raised 45 cents to $19.35.
The report also noted that corn production is expected to be greater.
Lower milk output forecasts tighten dairy supply, while the Class III cut reflects weaker cheese prices. The larger corn crop outlook points to softer corn prices and more feed supply for dairy rations.
After 136 past neutral report events, MILK moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.