
AgResource's Dan Basse expects Class III milk to bottom near $18 per cwt before potentially rallying to $24-26 in 2025, citing whey export opportunities and butterfat trade. USDA's December report raised 2024 and 2025 U.S. milk production forecasts on higher cow numbers and lowered its Class III price forecasts for both years.
Higher projected milk output is bearish for dairy prices, while the expected whey and butterfat demand could limit downside. Net, the outlook for Class III milk is mixed.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.