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The Mielke market weekly reports the August WASDE, which kept 2026 milk production at 236.6 billion pounds and lowered 2027 by 100 million pounds. Price forecasts were raised for Class III to $16.25/cwt and lowered for Class IV to $18.15/cwt.
Lower 2027 production and firmer Class III pricing are mildly supportive, but the cut to Class IV and the all-milk forecast limit the upside for milk prices.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.