
USDA's August WASDE left its 2026 milk production forecast at 236.6 billion pounds and lowered 2027 output to 238.0 billion. It raised the 2026 cheese and whey price forecasts, lowered butter and NDM, and set the Class III forecast at $16.25/cwt and Class IV at $18.15/cwt.
Mixed price revisions leave the milk outlook roughly balanced. Lower 2027 output is a mild supportive factor for milk, but the all-milk price forecast was cut by 15 cents.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.