
USDA's December WASDE kept 2019 and 2020 milk production forecasts at 218.6 and 222.4 billion pounds. Cheese and butter price forecasts for 2019 were lowered, while NDM and whey prices were raised on stronger export demand.
The 2019 Class III average was cut to $16.95 per cwt, and the 2020 average was raised 15 cents to $17.65.
Higher NDM and whey forecasts on export demand point to firmer dairy by-product values, while the lower 2019 Class III price reflects weaker cheese and limits milk price strength.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.