
The November WASDE raised US milk production estimates on higher milk per cow, and raised 2019 and 2020 cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts. Butter and whey forecasts were lowered, and the 2019 Class III average was projected at about $17.00/cwt.
Higher USDA milk output forecasts add supply to dairy markets, while upward cheese and NDM price forecasts support dairy margins. Lower butter and whey forecasts partly offset this.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.