
USDA's October WASDE raised 2022 milk production by 400 million pounds to 226.9 billion and 2023 by the same amount to 229.2 billion. The 2022 Class III average was raised 25 cents to $21.90/cwt and the 2023 Class III projection to $19.80, while the Class IV forecasts also rose.
Higher milk output estimates are bearish for dairy prices, but raised Class III and IV projections reflect firmer cheese and butter values.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.