
The September Federal order Class III milk price came in at $19.82 per cwt, down 28 cents from August, and the Class IV price was $24.63. CME butter set a record high the prior week before easing, and Class III futures pointed to higher October through December prices.
Divergent Class III and Class IV pricing and record butter reflect tight butter supply, while cheese-led Class III weakness constrains dairy income and feed demand.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.