
USDA raised its 2025 U.S. milk production forecast to 227.3 billion pounds, up 0.4 billion from the prior month, on a larger dairy herd and higher output per cow. The all-milk price forecast for 2025 rose 50 cents to $21.60 per cwt.
For 2026, USDA projects production of 227.9 billion pounds and a slightly lower all-milk price of $21.15.
Higher expected supply growth alongside softer 2026 prices points to ample milk for buyers and continued pressure on dairy product prices later in the year.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.