CoBank's quarterly report says US ethanol output rose 3.5% in Q4 2020 to 14.7 million gallons a day, about 90% of pre-COVID levels. Operating margins for a representative Iowa plant fell 10 cents to 11 cents per gallon as corn prices rose 26% and natural gas rose 19%.
Higher corn costs squeezed ethanol margins, which can slow grind and reduce corn demand. Strong distillers grains values could support DDGS prices and partly offset that margin pressure.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.