
The European Commission set criteria for biofuels used in transport under the recast Renewable Energy Directive. The rules cap the share of high indirect land use change risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels that Member States can count toward renewable targets.
Limits on high-ILUC-risk feedstocks such as palm oil reduce EU demand for those oils in biofuel use, which is bearish for palm oil prices and supports alternative vegetable oil demand.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.