
The EU's Renewable Energy Directive II caps the amount of high indirect land-use change risk biofuels, such as palm-based ones, that member states can count toward renewable targets. Those limits freeze at 2019 levels in 2021-2023 and then fall to zero by 2030.
Phasing out palm-based biodiesel credits in the EU removes a major source of palm oil demand, which is bearish for palm oil and, by substitution, supportive for soy oil and rapeseed oil demand.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.