
MEPs voted overwhelmingly on 4 April to ban biofuels made from vegetable oils including palm oil by 2020. The package also approved a new palm oil regulation, minimum sustainability criteria, customs duty reforms and anti-deforestation clauses for future EU trade deals, passing 640 to 18.
A 2020 ban on palm oil in EU biofuels removes a significant source of demand, which is bearish for palm oil and could push vegetable oil demand toward soybean and rapeseed oil, supporting SBO prices.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.