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A National Hog Farmer analysis argues that large Chinese pork shipments this summer, combined with declining US butcher hog supplies, could push cash hog prices sharply higher. It cites reports that Chinese pork prices may rise around 70% and sow numbers are down 21% due to African swine fever.
Expected Chinese import demand plus tighter US hog supplies supports lean hog prices and feed demand for pork production.
nationalhogfarmer.comDennis SmithApr 22, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
