
HAMS Marketing Services says North American hog production is up more than 5% year over year, but it sees upside for 2020 hog prices. Futures rose 5-10% over the past week on steadily rising Chinese purchases of US pork.
African swine fever has created a large supply gap in Asia.
A large supply gap in Asia from African swine fever supports North American pork prices. Price gains depend on exports moving, which offsets heavy domestic supply.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.