CME December lean hog futures settled up the daily 3-cent limit at 57.525 cents per pound on Wednesday as African swine fever spread in China, with over 40 cases reported across 12 provinces and municipalities. China's agriculture ministry also said it would ban feeding kitchen waste to pigs.
Expected loss of Chinese hog supply raises import demand for pork and boosts U.S. hog values, while the discount of futures to the cash index also supported buying.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.