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Bloomberg reports INTL FCStone's Arlan Suderman says African swine fever in China is the most dramatic industry event he has seen in nearly 40 years, and that it is under-reported. He expects China's farm industry to restructure and global meat prices to escalate, with the virus having spread to Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia.
Losses equal to a large share of China's hog herd point to sharply higher global pork import demand, supporting meat prices while reducing Chinese feed grain and soymeal demand.
straitstimes.comApr 27, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
