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Iranian urea producers are expected to struggle to export fertilizer after the US decided not to renew oil sanctions waivers. The waivers for eight countries expire on 2 May.
Iran is shifting to non-traditional markets, and some trade continues with Brazil through barter and Turkey through local currency payments.
Losing Iranian urea supply into Asia removes a source of tradeable nitrogen and tightens the global market. This supports urea prices, especially where Iranian product had reached India via re-exports from China.
vinachem.com.vnApr 26, 2019After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
