Yara International said Russia, the largest urea exporter, remains quite active in shipments despite Western sanctions, though visibility on its trade is low. Russia's April urea exports were reported to have fallen about 25%, an estimate Yara called speculative.
China has exported very little nitrogen fertilizer.
Sanctions-driven disruption to Russia's roughly 7m tonnes of annual urea exports tightens global nitrogen supply, which supports urea prices and raises costs for feed grain growers.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.