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The US decision to end sanctions waivers on Iranian oil from May 2 could cut India's crude imports from Iran, which were 23.6 MT in 2018-19. The article also notes Iran takes 32% of India's basmati rice exports, which could fall if trade with Iran is disrupted.
Loss of the Iranian basmati market would reduce rice export demand and pressure Indian rice prices, while higher replacement crude costs add to energy costs.
business-standard.comShine JacobMay 1, 2019After 13 past bearish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (77% higher; middle half +0.6% to +3.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
