Oil rose nearly 1 percent on Thursday as the prospect of a global supply shortfall grew ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude in about five weeks. Brent was at $81.26, just off Tuesday's four-year high of $82.55.
Analysts said OPEC and Russia were unlikely to respond immediately to Trump's demands for more output.
Expected Iranian supply losses and OPEC reluctance keep crude firm, supporting diesel and energy input costs for feed producers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.