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US-Iran tensions have halted Indian Basmati exports to Iran, which previously made up about 30% of the trade, and Gulf shipping risks deter exporters. EU pesticide rules have also cut Basmati shipments to Europe, and prices have fallen sharply.
Lost Iranian demand and a glut of Basmati supply are pressuring Indian rice prices lower.
After 13 past bearish geopolitics events, RICE moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (77% higher; middle half +0.6% to +3.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.