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Iran has halted Indian basmati shipments after reporting coronavirus deaths, adding to strain from US-Iran tensions. Basmati prices on the ICEX exchange have fallen, and exports are already down 18-20% this fiscal year.
Loss of Iran, a top basmati destination, leaves Indian exporters with surplus supply and lower prices, which pressures global rice prices.
After 13 past bearish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (77% higher; middle half +0.6% to +3.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.