
Brent crude rose to an intraday high of $74.31 a barrel after reports that the US would stop granting sanctions waivers to countries importing Iranian crude from May 2. Prices had already risen about 14.7% since late February on OPEC supply concerns and sanctions on Venezuela.
The rupee weakened in response to the higher oil import bill.
Higher crude raises India's import bill and inflation risk, pressuring the rupee and weighing on demand for imported commodities and feed inputs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.