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Reuters reports that Trump's tariff threats have driven a sharp divergence between the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. The peso fell as much as 5% in recent weeks before recovering most of that loss, with analysts saying a lasting risk premium may now attach to Mexican assets.
A structural shift of investor money from Mexico to Brazil could strengthen the real and make Brazilian soybean meal and corn more competitive on export markets, while a weaker real would do the opposite.
sg.finance.yahoo.comJamie McGeeverJun 14, 2019After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
